Entry ID: 9 Category: Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB)Rachael M. Jones,1,2∗ Yoshifumi Masago,3,4 Timothy Bartrand,5 Charles N. Haas,5 Mark Nicas,1 and Joan B. Rose3(2009) Characterizing the Risk of Infection from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Commercial Passenger Aircraft Using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment . Risk Analysis; 29.Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to predict the likelihood and spatial organization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in a commercial aircraft. Passenger exposure was predicted via a multizone Markov model in four scenarios: seated or moving infectious passengers and with or without filtration of recirculated cabin air. The traditional exponential (k = 1) and a new exponential (k = 0.0218) dose-response function were used to compute infection risk. Emission variability was included by Monte Carlo simulation. Infection risks were higher nearer and aft of the source; steady state airborne concentration levels were not attained. Expected incidence was low to moderate, with the central 95% ranging from 10−6 to 10−1 per 169 passengers in the four scenarios. Emission rates used were low compared to measurements from active TB patients in wards, thus a 'superspreader' emitting 44 quanta/h could produce 6.2 cases or more under these scenarios. Use of respiratory protection by the infectious source and/or susceptible passengers reduced infection incidence up to one order of magnitude. Use your browser's "Back" button to return to the results list.
